He was previously the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Judge Timothy Thomason, who also announced the results of recounts in two other races, said Republican Tom Horne prevailed in the race for state superintendent of public instruction and Republican Liz Harris won a state legislative seat in the Phoenix suburbs. RT @AceElections: In 2022 all of Election Twitter learned a valuable lesson and that is to never question @RalstonReports when it comes to his predictions in the state of Nevada. POLITICO illustration/Photos by Getty Images. This moved liberals out of electoral districts where Democrats reliably won by large margins into many purple regions that had the potential to swing with just small changes to the map. Uzoma Nkwonta is several thousand feet in the air aboard an American Airlines flight heading back to D.C. still in the navy suit and Calvin Klein loafers he wore to court that day when he opens his laptop to discover his client had won his lawsuit against the state of Georgia. Choose potential paths to a Senate majority in 2022. But it was clear he wasnt over-the-moon about it. Perhaps a good marker for measuring how well the Republicans do is 235, which is the number of seats Democrats won in 2018 (and would represent a net gain of 22). I tweeted to her yesterday, asking her to condemn this. These voters are not yet Republicans, but they increasingly recognize they are not modern Democrats. Indoctrination in socialism and CRT have no place in Florida schools. Refresh. Support for the incoming congressman is eroding at home. Republicans will likely govern the House by a distinct margin. This Election Day, Listen to the Betting Market Instead of Pundit Predictions Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models, and everything . Some liberals say that the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump surges prove that a stable center-left coalition exists to extinguish MAGA. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. But Hochul and Adams are banking that a unified approach will move the needle on a number of top items from changes to the states controversial laws ending cash bail to a rapid increase in housing development in a state controlled entirely by Democrats. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. FiveThirtyEights House model: Republicans have an 80% chance of winning between 1 and 33 seats. It also brings to the surface tensions over whether or not McDaniel can or should lead the RNC in this current political climate, with an increasingly undisciplined Trump launching a third presidential run and the party coming to terms with midterm losses that many blame on the former president. December 5:Georgia runoff moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Sign up for EPPC Briefly! Including the latest shifts, 216 seats are now in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category meaning Republicans are only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. Republicans are still suffering from the pandemics fallout. Matthew O'Shea is facing a tough battle against . A consensus outlook for the 2022 Senate elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters . The modern average is a loss of 27 House seats. In our simulations of the election, Fetterman won the race 78.8% of the time. 3 Questions We Have About George Santos Jan 5, 2023; Congress. The final pages of the 2022 midterm elections are yet to be written. She was a generous tipper, per our tipster. GEORGIA ON MY MIND A Quarter-Billion Dollars for the Walker-Warnock Georgia Senate Race Buys Toss-Up, by WSJs Joshua Jamerson and Cameron McWhirter in Atlanta: To win a single Senate seat, Republicans and Democrats have spent the equivalent of $30.83 on every one of the 7.8 million eligible voters in Georgia. Cotton has attributed his decision to family concerns, saying that a national campaign would take him away from his two young sons, who are seven and five years old., TRUMP VS. DeSANTIS The shadow campaign between Trump and Florida Gov. DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Inflation, crime, progressive attempts at overreach and a general sense that President Biden is not up to the job will likely deliver a surprisingly large victory to Republicans. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. We all remember in 2016, he said, if he got elected, there was going to be so much winning and winning and winning and winning, they'd get sick of winning, Christie said Sunday during a panel discussion on ABCs This Week. None of us knew at the time he was actually talking about the Democrats.. @JMilesColeman . He previously was senior media relations manager at Leidos and is a Trump White House alum. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo. [I]ts very possible that the election deniers that Biden is warning about will soon take over critical government posts, raising even more complicated questions about the path his presidency will chart., If Democrats dont do well, the party has to take a really hard look at our messaging. DeSantis gave his inaugural address in front of the Florida historic Capitol building in downtown Tallahassee, but the event came with much grander trappings than traditional inaugural events including DeSantis' first one four years ago. He also served as the rapid response director and national spokesman for former Florida Governor Jeb Bushs 2016 campaign, as well as an aide on Mitt Romneys 2012 presidential campaign. It was, in other words, meant to look presidential. After spending much of her time in office managing bad headlines, staff turnover and persistent questions about her portfolio and position in Biden world, the vice president is in a better place, her allies and aides say. The final 2022 Senate ratings fromElections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. The big takeaway: Republicans have a grip on the House majority. The states had divergent results but shared a few key things in common. On balance, we expect the reapportionment of House seats which we analyzed late last month to benefit Republicans to a small extent. The early votes, which according to official figures skewed for Warnock, would also help the pastor-turned-senator expand a Senate majority that, by all historical indicators, Democrats were poised to lose. That has created an opening for his Democratic opponent, DESTINY WELLS., MEANWHILE IN ARIZONA In Arizona, GOP leans into immigration as Democrats plead for sanity in final midterms push, by NBCs Alicia Victoria Lozano Suspicious envelope with 'white substance' found at Kari Lake's campaign headquarters, by the Arizona Republics Ellie Willard and Lillian Boyd. National Review Online His first official act upon taking office earlier this month was unusual: The Republican fulfilled a campaign promise by withdrawing Alabama from an obscure interstate compact that helps states maintain voter rolls, citing data security concerns. Tuesdays midterm elections could be a continuation of that political trench warfare. The red wave never arrived, nor did the Russian victory over Ukraine. 1. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. CLOSING TIME Democrats look to centrists in final hours while GOP amps up its base, by WaPos Annie Linskey, Cara McGoogan and Colby Itkowitz, For Republicans: As Republican candidates make their final appeal in key states, theyre tapping some of the most polarizing figures in their party and turning to messages centered on cultural division and at times pushing racial discord., For Democrats: At the same time, many Democrats are scrambling to highlight more moderate themes, overlooking the far left of their party and bringing in surrogates who appeal to middle-of-the-road voters, including former president Bill Clinton, Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG and Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (Minn.)., Confidence, Anxiety and a Scramble for Votes Two Days Before the Midterms, by NYTs Lisa Lerer, Jennifer Medina and Jonathan Weisman in Delaware County, Pa.: As candidates sprinted across the country to make their closing arguments to voters, Republicans entered the final stretch of the race confident they would win control of the House and possibly the Senate. Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore Are Ready To Step Up, McDaniel vs. Dhillon: Inside the battle for the RNC, Election deniers set sights on next target. One of many things gnawing at Dems in those scenarios: Having described a Republican wave as a gateway to democracys peril, Biden and his fellow Democrats would have to grapple with the likelihood that voters did not feel similarly aghast, writes Lemire. That advice reflects a recognition among digital campaign staffers that text and email programs have gone from innovative to out of hand, to the point that its harming the campaign ecosystem. Jupiter, the planet of. Though Republicans may not be able to completely turn the country around all at once Joe Biden is still president, after all the GOP can still provide a very effective brake pedal. (See here this afternoon for his final analysis.). DeSantis exposes the dishonesty of College Board. There was no red wave, but more of a red ripple. | Ted Shaffrey/AP Photo. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 35 Senate elections in 2022. Bruised egos are commonplace in politics. Tuesdays results show the public wants to turn the page on complete Democratic control of Washington. Despite the long odds that national pundits and pollsters gave her throughout the campaign, she beat Joe Kent, an election-denier and regular guest on Tucker Carlson, by less than one point. Declining return on investment on digital list-building and concerns from surveys of donors have online fundraisers worried. It is not a faith shared by everyone, not even among fellow Democrats, not even among his own advisers and allies, some of whom view the coming days with dread. But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, its fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. To take control, one party must win at least six of the 10 competitive races. With the Republican Party projected to win a slim majority in the US House of Representatives and Nancy Pelosi stepping down from the Democratic . The aim has been to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine, the officials said., THE VIEW FROM KYIV Kyiv prepares for a winter with no heat, water or power, by APs Sam Mednick, THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW Russia Looks to Private Militia to Secure a Victory in Eastern Ukraine, by NYTs Andrew Higgins and Matthew Mpoke Bigg, PSAKI BOMB My Job In This Role Is To Not Guess: Jen Psakis TV Career Is Getting Off The Ground, by Vanity Fairs Charlotte Klein: The exWhite House press secretary will be breaking down the midterms Tuesday night in the MSNBC studio and has been sounding out MIKA [BRZEZINSKI], RACHEL [MADDOW], and ARI [MELBER] as she prepares to launch her own Peacock show.