The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." Whereas Tester . The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. 04:58 PM. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. 450 episodes. Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California. 9 days ago. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of Buy, Sell, or Hold to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. Find us at ThisDayPod.com. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. 3 min read. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. Nate Silver's. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. MANAGER'S SALARY. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.